Transparency is non-negotiable. At CalibrSports, we publish every bet and every result, not because we win every time, but because honest reporting is the only way to build trust. Here is how we track, measure, and report our performance across leagues and markets.
Why 30-Day Windows
Football betting performance is inherently noisy in the short term. A single weekend can swing your ROI by 20 percentage points. We use rolling 30-day windows as the primary reporting period because it balances recency with statistical significance. Over 30 days, you typically see 80-150 settled bets depending on the fixture calendar, enough to draw meaningful conclusions while still reflecting current model form.
Performance by League
Not all leagues are created equal from a prediction standpoint. Each has distinct characteristics that affect model accuracy:
- Premier League (EPL): The most competitive and best-covered league. Bookmaker lines are sharpest here, which means edges are thinner but more reliable when found. Our model performs consistently across 1X2 and goals markets.
- La Liga: Home advantage is historically stronger in Spain. Our model captures this through venue-adjusted Elo ratings and home-specific form features. The draw market has been particularly profitable.
- Serie A: Tactically defensive league where Under and correct score markets tend to offer more value. Asian Handicap has been our strongest market in Italian football.
- Bundesliga: Higher-scoring than other top leagues, which benefits our Over/Under and BTTS models. The league's relative predictability at the top makes 1X2 home markets attractive.
- Ligue 1: The most volatile league in our coverage, with frequent upsets outside the top three. Our model accounts for this through wider confidence intervals and more conservative staking on away bets.
Performance by Market
We cover 12+ betting markets per fixture. Here is how we categorize and track them:
Core Markets
- 1X2 (Match Result): The bread-and-butter market. We track home, draw, and away separately because each behaves differently. Home bets hit more often but at lower odds; away bets are higher variance but offer larger payouts when they land.
- Over/Under Goals: Our Poisson model estimates expected goals for each team, then derives probabilities for standard lines (1.5, 2.5, 3.5). We focus on the lines where our probability diverges most from the bookmaker's implied probability.
- Both Teams to Score: Structural note: the Poisson model naturally favors BTTS Yes because independent scoring probabilities multiply, so we are selective with BTTS No bets.
Advanced Markets
- Asian Handicap: Our best-performing market by ROI across most leagues. The handicap removes the draw outcome, which simplifies the prediction problem.
- Correct Score: High-variance, high-reward. We only back correct scores where the model shows a significant probability edge, typically home no-goal scenarios in defensive matchups.
- Double Chance: Used selectively when the model assigns high combined probability to two outcomes but cannot confidently separate them.
Compound Kelly ROI
Our headline ROI figure uses compound Kelly methodology. This means each bet's return is calculated as a percentage of the bankroll at the time of placement, not the starting bankroll. As the bankroll grows, bet sizes grow proportionally. This gives a more accurate picture of real-world performance than flat-unit ROI, which understates returns during winning streaks and overstates losses during drawdowns.
See It Yourself
All of this data is available in real time on our performance page. You can filter by league, market, and time period. Every bet includes the pre-match probability, the odds taken, the stake percentage, and the result. No hidden bets, no retroactive edits, no excuses.