Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips — Super Lig 27 Apr 2026

Alanyaspor (12th) welcome Samsunspor (7th) in a Super Lig fixture where both sides will be eager to climb the table. The hosts have 33 points on the board, while Samsunspor sit on 42 — neither can afford to let standards slip with the business end of the season approaching.

Don’t expect a goal-fest here. With a combined projected xG of 2.6, this has the makings of a cagey, tactical affair where defensive discipline could prove the difference.

Alanyaspor’s form coming into this match has been blistering, averaging 1.0 points per game from their last five fixtures. The goals have been flowing — 9 in their last five matches — though 5 conceded does suggest some vulnerabilities at the back.

Samsunspor arrive in fine fettle, averaging 2.1 points per game from their last five. However, their defensive record is a concern — 9 conceded in five games, a vulnerability Alanyaspor will look to exploit.

The historical record between Alanyaspor and Samsunspor will be on the minds of both managers as they plot their approach. Every encounter adds another chapter to the rivalry, and this one carries its own unique set of circumstances and pressures.

This is about as tight as it gets in our predictions. Alanyaspor are given a 25% chance, Samsunspor 36%, and the draw 37%. When the probabilities are this close, it’s a game that could go any way, and picking a winner with confidence is virtually impossible.

The expected goals model projects Alanyaspor at 1.3 xG and Samsunspor at 1.3 xG. The most likely scoreline according to our Poisson model is 1-1 (12% probability), followed by 1-0 (8%).