Deportivo Alavés vs Mallorca Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips — La Liga 25 Apr 2026

The stakes couldn’t be higher for Deportivo Alavés, who sit 18th and in the relegation battle. Every point is precious at this stage of the season, and a defeat here could leave them staring at the very real prospect of the drop. Mallorca arrive knowing they can pile on the misery or hand a lifeline to their opponents.

The numbers point towards an entertaining game. Our model projects 1.5 expected goals for Deportivo Alavés and 1.3 for Mallorca, suggesting we could see goals at both ends. If both sides play to their offensive strengths, the neutral will be in for a treat.

Deportivo Alavés’s form coming into this match has been blistering, averaging 1.0 points per game from their last five fixtures. The goals have been flowing — 11 in their last five matches — though 11 conceded does suggest some vulnerabilities at the back.

Mallorca arrive in fine fettle, averaging 2.0 points per game from their last five. They’ve scored 9 and conceded 5 in their last five outings.

The historical record between Deportivo Alavés and Mallorca will be on the minds of both managers as they plot their approach. Every encounter adds another chapter to the rivalry, and this one carries its own unique set of circumstances and pressures.

This is about as tight as it gets in our predictions. Deportivo Alavés are given a 32% chance, Mallorca 27%, and the draw 39%. When the probabilities are this close, it’s a game that could go any way, and picking a winner with confidence is virtually impossible.

The expected goals model projects Deportivo Alavés at 1.5 xG and Mallorca at 1.3 xG. The most likely scoreline according to our Poisson model is 1-1 (12% probability), followed by 2-1 (8%).