Deportivo Alavés vs Osasuna Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips — La Liga 05 Apr 2026

Deportivo Alavés (15th) welcome Osasuna (10th) in a La Liga fixture where both sides will be eager to climb the table. The hosts have 31 points on the board, while Osasuna sit on 37 — neither can afford to let standards slip with the business end of the season approaching.

Don’t expect a goal-fest here. With a combined projected xG of 2.7, this has the makings of a cagey, tactical affair where defensive discipline could prove the difference.

Deportivo Alavés’s form coming into this match has been inconsistent, averaging 1.2 points per game from their last five fixtures. The goals have been flowing — 9 in their last five matches — though 11 conceded does suggest some vulnerabilities at the back.

Osasuna arrive averaging 1.4 points per game from their last five. They’ve scored 6 and conceded 7 in their last five outings.

The historical record between Deportivo Alavés and Osasuna will be on the minds of both managers as they plot their approach. Every encounter adds another chapter to the rivalry, and this one carries its own unique set of circumstances and pressures.

This is about as tight as it gets in our predictions. Deportivo Alavés are given a 22% chance, Osasuna 42%, and the draw 34%. When the probabilities are this close, it’s a game that could go any way, and picking a winner with confidence is virtually impossible.

The expected goals model projects Deportivo Alavés at 1.3 xG and Osasuna at 1.4 xG. The most likely scoreline according to our Poisson model is 1-1 (12% probability), followed by 0-1 (9%).