Arsenal vs Fulham Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips — Premier League 02 May 2026

Arsenal sit 1st, top of the table, and will view this as an opportunity to consolidate their position. For Fulham in 10th, this is a chance to make a statement against one of the league’s top sides — the kind of result that can shift momentum for the rest of the campaign.

The numbers point towards an entertaining game. Our model projects 1.9 expected goals for Arsenal and 1.0 for Fulham, suggesting we could see goals at both ends. If both sides play to their offensive strengths, the neutral will be in for a treat.

Arsenal’s form coming into this match has been blistering, averaging 0.9 points per game from their last five fixtures. They’ve scored 4 and conceded 8 in their last five outings.

Fulham arrive averaging 1.7 points per game from their last five. They’ve scored 4 and conceded 3 in their last five outings.

The quality gap between these sides is notable. Arsenal’s Elo rating (1633) is 140 points higher than Fulham’s (1492), suggesting a meaningful difference in overall squad strength and performance level.

The historical record between Arsenal and Fulham will be on the minds of both managers as they plot their approach. Every encounter adds another chapter to the rivalry, and this one carries its own unique set of circumstances and pressures.

Our model gives Arsenal the edge at 53%, but this is far from a foregone conclusion. Fulham carry a 18% chance of springing a surprise, and with the draw at 27%, any of the three outcomes is a realistic possibility. The bookmakers tell a similar story — this is a match where the margins are fine.

The expected goals model projects Arsenal at 1.9 xG and Fulham at 1.0 xG. The most likely scoreline according to our Poisson model is 1-1 (10% probability), followed by 1-0 (10%).