Auxerre vs Brest Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips — Ligue 1 21 Mar 2026

Auxerre (16th) welcome Brest (10th) in a Ligue 1 fixture where both sides will be eager to climb the table. The hosts have 19 points on the board, while Brest sit on 36 — neither can afford to let standards slip with the business end of the season approaching.

Don’t expect a goal-fest here. With a combined projected xG of 2.3, this has the makings of a cagey, tactical affair where defensive discipline could prove the difference.

Auxerre’s form coming into this match has been excellent, averaging 0.8 points per game from their last five fixtures. They’ve scored 5 and conceded 7 in their last five outings.

Brest arrive in fine fettle, averaging 1.9 points per game from their last five. On the road they’ve been productive, scoring 6 in their last five while keeping things tight with just 3 conceded.

The quality gap between these sides is notable. Brest’s Elo rating (1501) is 118 points higher than Auxerre’s (1383), suggesting a meaningful difference in overall squad strength and performance level.

The historical record between Auxerre and Brest will be on the minds of both managers as they plot their approach. Every encounter adds another chapter to the rivalry, and this one carries its own unique set of circumstances and pressures.

This is about as tight as it gets in our predictions. Auxerre are given a 26% chance, Brest 32%, and the draw 40%. When the probabilities are this close, it’s a game that could go any way, and picking a winner with confidence is virtually impossible.

The expected goals model projects Auxerre at 1.1 xG and Brest at 1.2 xG. The most likely scoreline according to our Poisson model is 1-1 (13% probability), followed by 0-1 (11%).