Blackburn Rovers vs Middlesbrough Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips — Championship 21 Mar 2026

Middlesbrough sit 2nd, inside the Champions League places, and will view this as an opportunity to consolidate their position. For Blackburn Rovers in 20th, this is a chance to make a statement against one of the league’s top sides — the kind of result that can shift momentum for the rest of the campaign.

The numbers point towards an entertaining game. Our model projects 1.2 expected goals for Blackburn Rovers and 1.8 for Middlesbrough, suggesting we could see goals at both ends. If both sides play to their offensive strengths, the neutral will be in for a treat.

Blackburn Rovers’s form coming into this match has been poor, averaging 1.1 points per game from their last five fixtures. They’ve scored 5 and conceded 8 in their last five outings.

Middlesbrough arrive averaging 1.5 points per game from their last five. On the road they’ve been productive, scoring 9 in their last five while keeping things tight with just 4 conceded.

The quality gap between these sides is notable. Middlesbrough’s Elo rating (1524) is 116 points higher than Blackburn Rovers’s (1408), suggesting a meaningful difference in overall squad strength and performance level.

The historical record between Blackburn Rovers and Middlesbrough will be on the minds of both managers as they plot their approach. Every encounter adds another chapter to the rivalry, and this one carries its own unique set of circumstances and pressures.

Our model gives Middlesbrough the edge at 56%, but this is far from a foregone conclusion. Blackburn Rovers carry a 17% chance of springing a surprise, and with the draw at 26%, any of the three outcomes is a realistic possibility. The bookmakers tell a similar story — this is a match where the margins are fine.

The expected goals model projects Blackburn Rovers at 1.2 xG and Middlesbrough at 1.8 xG. The most likely scoreline according to our Poisson model is 1-1 (11% probability), followed by 1-2 (9%).