Bologna vs Roma Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips — Serie A 25 Apr 2026

Bologna (8th) welcome Roma (6th) in a Serie A fixture where both sides will be eager to climb the table. The hosts have 48 points on the board, while Roma sit on 58 — neither can afford to let standards slip with the business end of the season approaching.

Don’t expect a goal-fest here. With a combined projected xG of 2.5, this has the makings of a cagey, tactical affair where defensive discipline could prove the difference.

Bologna’s form coming into this match has been solid, averaging 1.7 points per game from their last five fixtures. They’ve scored 5 and conceded 5 in their last five outings.

Roma arrive averaging 1.5 points per game from their last five. However, their defensive record is a concern — 8 conceded in five games, a vulnerability Bologna will look to exploit.

The historical record between Bologna and Roma will be on the minds of both managers as they plot their approach. Every encounter adds another chapter to the rivalry, and this one carries its own unique set of circumstances and pressures.

This is about as tight as it gets in our predictions. Bologna are given a 28% chance, Roma 36%, and the draw 34%. When the probabilities are this close, it’s a game that could go any way, and picking a winner with confidence is virtually impossible.

The expected goals model projects Bologna at 1.3 xG and Roma at 1.2 xG. The most likely scoreline according to our Poisson model is 1-1 (13% probability), followed by 1-0 (10%).