AFC Bournemouth vs Leeds United Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips — Premier League 22 Apr 2026

AFC Bournemouth (8th) welcome Leeds United (15th) in a Premier League fixture where both sides will be eager to climb the table. The hosts have 48 points on the board, while Leeds United sit on 39 — neither can afford to let standards slip with the business end of the season approaching.

Don’t expect a goal-fest here. With a combined projected xG of 2.7, this has the makings of a cagey, tactical affair where defensive discipline could prove the difference.

AFC Bournemouth’s form coming into this match has been excellent, averaging 2.1 points per game from their last five fixtures. They’ve scored 6 and conceded 4 in their last five outings.

Leeds United arrive in fine fettle, averaging 2.0 points per game from their last five. They’ve scored 5 and conceded 2 in their last five outings.

The historical record between AFC Bournemouth and Leeds United will be on the minds of both managers as they plot their approach. Every encounter adds another chapter to the rivalry, and this one carries its own unique set of circumstances and pressures.

This is about as tight as it gets in our predictions. AFC Bournemouth are given a 36% chance, Leeds United 28%, and the draw 35%. When the probabilities are this close, it’s a game that could go any way, and picking a winner with confidence is virtually impossible.

The expected goals model projects AFC Bournemouth at 1.6 xG and Leeds United at 1.1 xG. The most likely scoreline according to our Poisson model is 1-1 (12% probability), followed by 1-0 (10%).