Burnley vs Aston Villa Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips — Premier League 10 May 2026

The stakes couldn’t be higher for Burnley, who sit 19th and in the relegation battle. Every point is precious at this stage of the season, and a defeat here could leave them staring at the very real prospect of the drop. Aston Villa arrive knowing they can pile on the misery or hand a lifeline to their opponents.

The numbers point towards an entertaining game. Our model projects 1.1 expected goals for Burnley and 1.9 for Aston Villa, suggesting we could see goals at both ends. If both sides play to their offensive strengths, the neutral will be in for a treat.

Burnley’s form coming into this match has been abysmal, averaging 0.0 points per game from their last five fixtures. They’ve scored 3 and conceded 13 in their last five outings.

Aston Villa arrive hoping to rediscover their best form, averaging 1.1 points per game from their last five. They’ve scored 8 and conceded 7 in their last five outings.

The quality gap between these sides is notable. Aston Villa’s Elo rating (1485) is 164 points higher than Burnley’s (1321), suggesting a meaningful difference in overall squad strength and performance level.

The historical record between Burnley and Aston Villa will be on the minds of both managers as they plot their approach. Every encounter adds another chapter to the rivalry, and this one carries its own unique set of circumstances and pressures.

Our model gives Aston Villa the edge at 58%, but this is far from a foregone conclusion. Burnley carry a 18% chance of springing a surprise, and with the draw at 23%, any of the three outcomes is a realistic possibility. The bookmakers tell a similar story — this is a match where the margins are fine.

The expected goals model projects Burnley at 1.1 xG and Aston Villa at 1.9 xG. The most likely scoreline according to our Poisson model is 1-1 (11% probability), followed by 1-2 (9%).