Celta de Vigo vs Deportivo Alavés Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips — La Liga 22 Mar 2026

The stakes couldn’t be higher for Deportivo Alavés, who sit 17th and hovering above the danger zone. Every point is precious at this stage of the season, and a defeat here could leave them staring at the very real prospect of the drop. Celta de Vigo arrive knowing they can pile on the misery or hand a lifeline to their opponents.

The numbers point towards an entertaining game. Our model projects 1.8 expected goals for Celta de Vigo and 1.0 for Deportivo Alavés, suggesting we could see goals at both ends. If both sides play to their offensive strengths, the neutral will be in for a treat.

Celta de Vigo’s form coming into this match has been inconsistent, averaging 1.5 points per game from their last five fixtures. The goals have been flowing — 8 in their last five matches — though 6 conceded does suggest some vulnerabilities at the back.

Deportivo Alavés arrive averaging 0.5 points per game from their last five. However, their defensive record is a concern — 9 conceded in five games, a vulnerability Celta de Vigo will look to exploit.

The quality gap between these sides is notable. Celta de Vigo’s Elo rating (1513) is 106 points higher than Deportivo Alavés’s (1407), suggesting a meaningful difference in overall squad strength and performance level.

The historical record between Celta de Vigo and Deportivo Alavés will be on the minds of both managers as they plot their approach. Every encounter adds another chapter to the rivalry, and this one carries its own unique set of circumstances and pressures.

Our model gives Celta de Vigo the edge at 50%, but this is far from a foregone conclusion. Deportivo Alavés carry a 19% chance of springing a surprise, and with the draw at 29%, any of the three outcomes is a realistic possibility. The bookmakers tell a similar story — this is a match where the margins are fine.

The expected goals model projects Celta de Vigo at 1.8 xG and Deportivo Alavés at 1.0 xG. The most likely scoreline according to our Poisson model is 1-1 (11% probability), followed by 1-0 (10%).