Chelsea vs Leeds United Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips — FA Cup 26 Apr 2026

The stakes couldn’t be higher for Chelsea, who sit 47th and in the relegation battle. Every point is precious at this stage of the season, and a defeat here could leave them staring at the very real prospect of the drop. Leeds United arrive knowing they can pile on the misery or hand a lifeline to their opponents.

The numbers point towards an entertaining game. Our model projects 1.8 expected goals for Chelsea and 1.2 for Leeds United, suggesting we could see goals at both ends. If both sides play to their offensive strengths, the neutral will be in for a treat.

Chelsea’s form coming into this match has been inconsistent, averaging 0.4 points per game from their last five fixtures. They’ve scored 7 and conceded 10 in their last five outings.

Leeds United arrive in fine fettle, averaging 1.9 points per game from their last five. On the road they’ve been productive, scoring 7 in their last five while keeping things tight with just 3 conceded.

The historical record between Chelsea and Leeds United will be on the minds of both managers as they plot their approach. Every encounter adds another chapter to the rivalry, and this one carries its own unique set of circumstances and pressures.

This is about as tight as it gets in our predictions. Chelsea are given a 37% chance, Leeds United 25%, and the draw 36%. When the probabilities are this close, it’s a game that could go any way, and picking a winner with confidence is virtually impossible.

The expected goals model projects Chelsea at 1.8 xG and Leeds United at 1.2 xG. The most likely scoreline according to our Poisson model is 1-1 (11% probability), followed by 2-1 (9%).