FA CUP 2025/26
Chelsea

Chelsea

Home
VS
Sat 16 May
14:00 GMT
Manchester City

Manchester City

Away
15% Home23% Draw62% Away
CS
CalibrSports Research
Updated 16 May 2026 · 8 min read

Chelsea vs Manchester City Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips — FA Cup 16 May 2026

Manchester City's quest for a domestic cup double faces a Chelsea side reeling from injuries and poor form

15%
23%
62%
Chelsea
Draw 23%
Manchester City

What's at Stake

The implications of this match go beyond the FA Cup. A win for Manchester City would be a significant boost to their morale, while a loss could raise questions about their ability to perform under pressure. For Chelsea, a win would be a much-needed injection of confidence, while a loss would heap more pressure on the team.

Form & Team News

The players in form percentage also favors Manchester City, with 70% of their players in top form, compared to Chelsea's 60%. This could be a crucial factor in the match, as City's players are more likely to make a telling contribution.

Key Numbers
1.1
Chelsea xG
vs
Expected Goals
2.2
Manchester City xG

The Head-to-Head Factor

The historical record suggests that Manchester City are likely to come out on top in this match. They have the momentum, the form, and the players to make it count.

Our Prediction

Manchester City, on the other hand, will be confident of their ability to win the match. They have the players, the form, and the momentum to make it count, and will be eager to add to their EFL Cup title.

AI Prediction
Away Win
Most likely: 1-2
62%
confidence

Key Stats

  • Manchester City have played in four consecutive FA Cup finals
  • Chelsea have lost their last three FA Cup final appearances
  • Manchester City have scored 12 goals and conceded just 4 in their last 5 matches
  • Chelsea have scored just 3 goals and conceded 8 in their last 5 matches
  • Manchester City's Elo rating is 227 points higher than Chelsea's
  • The expected goals (xG) favor Manchester City, with an xG of 2.22 compared to Chelsea's 1.09
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