BUNDESLIGA 2025/26
Borussia Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund

Home
VS
Sat 21 Mar
17:30 GMT
Hamburger SV

Hamburger SV

Away
95% Home4% Draw1% Away
Full Time
3 - 2
WON
Double Chance1X
CS
CalibrSports Research
Updated 21 Mar 2026 · 8 min read

Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips — Bundesliga 21 Mar 2026

Borussia Dortmund look to extend their lead over Hamburger SV in the Bundesliga, with a strong home record and in-form striker Serhou Guirassy

95%
Borussia Dortmund
Draw 4%
Hamburger SV

What's at Stake

The league table context suggests that Borussia Dortmund are in a strong position to secure a top-two finish, but they cannot afford to drop points against lower-ranked teams like Hamburger SV. The visitors, on the other hand, are looking to cause an upset and boost their own chances of a top-half finish.

Form & Team News

The absence of key defenders for Borussia Dortmund could be a concern, but the team has added young players to their squad, including Luca Reggiani, Elias Benkara, and Danylo Krevsun. Reggiani has already made an impact, coming on for Sule during the Mainz victory, and could be handed a start against Hamburger SV.

Key Numbers
2.3
Borussia Dortmund xG
vs
Expected Goals
0.8
Hamburger SV xG

The Head-to-Head Factor

The historical record between the two teams does not reveal a clear dominance, but Borussia Dortmund's recent performances suggest they are the stronger team. Hamburger SV will need to be at their best to cause an upset.

Our Prediction

The match is likely to be a one-sided affair, with Borussia Dortmund dominating possession and creating scoring opportunities. Hamburger SV will need to be clinical on the counter-attack to have any chance of scoring.

AI Prediction
Home Win
Most likely: 2-0
95%
confidence

Key Stats

  • Borussia Dortmund have scored 12 goals in their last 5 games
  • Hamburger SV have conceded 6 goals in their last 5 games
  • Borussia Dortmund have a shot efficiency of 5.3 shots per goal
  • Hamburger SV have a shot efficiency of 9.2 shots per goal
  • Borussia Dortmund have a 206-point Elo gap over Hamburger SV
  • The expected goals (xG) for the match is 2.31 for Borussia Dortmund and 0.80 for Hamburger SV
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