Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips — Bundesliga 11 Apr 2026

Borussia Dortmund sit 2nd, inside the Champions League places, and will view this as an opportunity to consolidate their position. For Bayer 04 Leverkusen in 6th, this is a chance to make a statement against one of the league’s top sides — the kind of result that can shift momentum for the rest of the campaign.

The numbers point towards an entertaining game. Our model projects 2.0 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.2 for Bayer 04 Leverkusen, suggesting we could see goals at both ends. If both sides play to their offensive strengths, the neutral will be in for a treat.

Borussia Dortmund’s form coming into this match has been blistering, averaging 2.7 points per game from their last five fixtures. The goals have been flowing — 11 in their last five matches — though 6 conceded does suggest some vulnerabilities at the back.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen arrive averaging 1.8 points per game from their last five. However, their defensive record is a concern — 10 conceded in five games, a vulnerability Borussia Dortmund will look to exploit.

The quality gap between these sides is notable. Borussia Dortmund’s Elo rating (1667) is 135 points higher than Bayer 04 Leverkusen’s (1532), suggesting a meaningful difference in overall squad strength and performance level.

The historical record between Borussia Dortmund and Bayer 04 Leverkusen will be on the minds of both managers as they plot their approach. Every encounter adds another chapter to the rivalry, and this one carries its own unique set of circumstances and pressures.

Our model gives Borussia Dortmund the edge at 56%, but this is far from a foregone conclusion. Bayer 04 Leverkusen carry a 20% chance of springing a surprise, and with the draw at 23%, any of the three outcomes is a realistic possibility. The bookmakers tell a similar story — this is a match where the margins are fine.

The expected goals model projects Borussia Dortmund at 2.0 xG and Bayer 04 Leverkusen at 1.2 xG. The most likely scoreline according to our Poisson model is 1-1 (10% probability), followed by 2-1 (9%).