Estoril vs Benfica Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips — Liga Portugal 16 May 2026

Benfica sit 3rd, inside the Champions League places, and will view this as an opportunity to consolidate their position. For Estoril in 9th, this is a chance to make a statement against one of the league’s top sides — the kind of result that can shift momentum for the rest of the campaign.

The numbers point towards an entertaining game. Our model projects 0.9 expected goals for Estoril and 2.0 for Benfica, suggesting we could see goals at both ends. If both sides play to their offensive strengths, the neutral will be in for a treat.

Estoril’s form coming into this match has been solid, averaging 0.6 points per game from their last five fixtures. They’ve scored 3 and conceded 7 in their last five outings.

Benfica arrive in fine fettle, averaging 1.9 points per game from their last five. They’ve scored 12 and conceded 6 in their last five outings.

The quality gap between these sides is notable. Benfica’s Elo rating (1668) is 235 points higher than Estoril’s (1433), suggesting a meaningful difference in overall squad strength and performance level.

The historical record between Estoril and Benfica will be on the minds of both managers as they plot their approach. Every encounter adds another chapter to the rivalry, and this one carries its own unique set of circumstances and pressures.

Our AI model makes Benfica clear favourites here, giving them a 65% chance of winning. That leaves Estoril with just a 12% probability of pulling off a result, while the draw sits at 22%. This is one of the more lopsided predictions of the matchday — the data sees a clear gap between these two sides.

The expected goals model projects Estoril at 0.9 xG and Benfica at 2.0 xG. The most likely scoreline according to our Poisson model is 0-2 (10% probability), followed by 1-1 (10%).