Estoril vs Rio Ave Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips — Liga Portugal 22 Mar 2026

Estoril (7th) welcome Rio Ave (12th) in a Liga Portugal fixture where both sides will be eager to climb the table. The hosts have 37 points on the board, while Rio Ave sit on 27 — neither can afford to let standards slip with the business end of the season approaching.

Don’t expect a goal-fest here. With a combined projected xG of 2.7, this has the makings of a cagey, tactical affair where defensive discipline could prove the difference.

Estoril’s form coming into this match has been solid, averaging 1.6 points per game from their last five fixtures. They’ve scored 4 and conceded 7 in their last five outings.

Rio Ave arrive in fine fettle, averaging 1.8 points per game from their last five. They’ve scored 4 and conceded 4 in their last five outings.

The historical record between Estoril and Rio Ave will be on the minds of both managers as they plot their approach. Every encounter adds another chapter to the rivalry, and this one carries its own unique set of circumstances and pressures.

This is about as tight as it gets in our predictions. Estoril are given a 44% chance, Rio Ave 20%, and the draw 35%. When the probabilities are this close, it’s a game that could go any way, and picking a winner with confidence is virtually impossible.

The expected goals model projects Estoril at 1.7 xG and Rio Ave at 1.1 xG. The most likely scoreline according to our Poisson model is 1-1 (12% probability), followed by 1-0 (10%).