Everton vs Manchester City Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips — Premier League 04 May 2026

Manchester City sit 2nd, inside the Champions League places, and will view this as an opportunity to consolidate their position. For Everton in 11th, this is a chance to make a statement against one of the league’s top sides — the kind of result that can shift momentum for the rest of the campaign.

The numbers point towards an entertaining game. Our model projects 0.9 expected goals for Everton and 1.9 for Manchester City, suggesting we could see goals at both ends. If both sides play to their offensive strengths, the neutral will be in for a treat.

Everton’s form coming into this match has been solid, averaging 0.6 points per game from their last five fixtures. They’ve scored 7 and conceded 8 in their last five outings.

Manchester City arrive in fine fettle, averaging 3.0 points per game from their last five. On the road they’ve been productive, scoring 12 in their last five while keeping things tight with just 2 conceded.

The quality gap between these sides is notable. Manchester City’s Elo rating (1721) is 234 points higher than Everton’s (1487), suggesting a meaningful difference in overall squad strength and performance level.

The historical record between Everton and Manchester City will be on the minds of both managers as they plot their approach. Every encounter adds another chapter to the rivalry, and this one carries its own unique set of circumstances and pressures.

Our model gives Manchester City the edge at 64%, but this is far from a foregone conclusion. Everton carry a 12% chance of springing a surprise, and with the draw at 22%, any of the three outcomes is a realistic possibility. The bookmakers tell a similar story — this is a match where the margins are fine.

The expected goals model projects Everton at 0.9 xG and Manchester City at 1.9 xG. The most likely scoreline according to our Poisson model is 1-1 (10% probability), followed by 0-1 (10%).