Everton vs Sunderland Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips — Premier League 17 May 2026

Everton (10th) welcome Sunderland (12th) in a Premier League fixture where both sides will be eager to climb the table. The hosts have 49 points on the board, while Sunderland sit on 48 — neither can afford to let standards slip with the business end of the season approaching.

The numbers point towards an entertaining game. Our model projects 1.7 expected goals for Everton and 1.1 for Sunderland, suggesting we could see goals at both ends. If both sides play to their offensive strengths, the neutral will be in for a treat.

Everton’s form coming into this match has been solid, averaging 0.7 points per game from their last five fixtures. The goals have been flowing — 9 in their last five matches — though 11 conceded does suggest some vulnerabilities at the back.

Sunderland arrive in fine fettle, averaging 0.9 points per game from their last five. However, their defensive record is a concern — 10 conceded in five games, a vulnerability Everton will look to exploit.

The historical record between Everton and Sunderland will be on the minds of both managers as they plot their approach. Every encounter adds another chapter to the rivalry, and this one carries its own unique set of circumstances and pressures.

This is about as tight as it gets in our predictions. Everton are given a 46% chance, Sunderland 25%, and the draw 27%. When the probabilities are this close, it’s a game that could go any way, and picking a winner with confidence is virtually impossible.

The expected goals model projects Everton at 1.7 xG and Sunderland at 1.1 xG. The most likely scoreline according to our Poisson model is 1-1 (11% probability), followed by 1-0 (9%).