Famalicão vs Alverca Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips — Liga Portugal 16 May 2026

Famalicão (5th) welcome Alverca (10th) in a Liga Portugal fixture where both sides will be eager to climb the table. The hosts have 53 points on the board, while Alverca sit on 39 — neither can afford to let standards slip with the business end of the season approaching.

The numbers point towards an entertaining game. Our model projects 2.0 expected goals for Famalicão and 0.9 for Alverca, suggesting we could see goals at both ends. If both sides play to their offensive strengths, the neutral will be in for a treat.

Famalicão’s form coming into this match has been inconsistent, averaging 1.4 points per game from their last five fixtures. They’ve scored 6 and conceded 5 in their last five outings.

Alverca arrive averaging 1.2 points per game from their last five. They’ve scored 6 and conceded 5 in their last five outings.

The quality gap between these sides is notable. Famalicão’s Elo rating (1535) is 85 points higher than Alverca’s (1449), suggesting a meaningful difference in overall squad strength and performance level.

The historical record between Famalicão and Alverca will be on the minds of both managers as they plot their approach. Every encounter adds another chapter to the rivalry, and this one carries its own unique set of circumstances and pressures.

Our model gives Famalicão the edge at 63%, but this is far from a foregone conclusion. Alverca carry a 13% chance of springing a surprise, and with the draw at 22%, any of the three outcomes is a realistic possibility. The bookmakers tell a similar story — this is a match where the margins are fine.

The expected goals model projects Famalicão at 2.0 xG and Alverca at 0.9 xG. The most likely scoreline according to our Poisson model is 2-0 (11% probability), followed by 1-0 (11%).