FC Groningen vs AZ Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips — Eredivisie 22 Mar 2026

FC Groningen (10th) welcome AZ (6th) in a Eredivisie fixture where both sides will be eager to climb the table. The hosts have 35 points on the board, while AZ sit on 42 — neither can afford to let standards slip with the business end of the season approaching.

The numbers point towards an entertaining game. Our model projects 1.5 expected goals for FC Groningen and 1.4 for AZ, suggesting we could see goals at both ends. If both sides play to their offensive strengths, the neutral will be in for a treat.

FC Groningen’s form coming into this match has been poor, averaging 1.1 points per game from their last five fixtures. The goals have been flowing — 8 in their last five matches — though 9 conceded does suggest some vulnerabilities at the back.

AZ arrive averaging 1.6 points per game from their last five. They’ve scored 10 and conceded 6 in their last five outings.

The historical record between FC Groningen and AZ will be on the minds of both managers as they plot their approach. Every encounter adds another chapter to the rivalry, and this one carries its own unique set of circumstances and pressures.

This is about as tight as it gets in our predictions. FC Groningen are given a 25% chance, AZ 40%, and the draw 33%. When the probabilities are this close, it’s a game that could go any way, and picking a winner with confidence is virtually impossible.

The expected goals model projects FC Groningen at 1.5 xG and AZ at 1.4 xG. The most likely scoreline according to our Poisson model is 1-1 (12% probability), followed by 2-1 (8%).