FC Groningen vs Excelsior Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips — Eredivisie 02 May 2026

FC Groningen (9th) welcome Excelsior (14th) in a Eredivisie fixture where both sides will be eager to climb the table. The hosts have 42 points on the board, while Excelsior sit on 31 — neither can afford to let standards slip with the business end of the season approaching.

The numbers point towards an entertaining game. Our model projects 1.9 expected goals for FC Groningen and 1.0 for Excelsior, suggesting we could see goals at both ends. If both sides play to their offensive strengths, the neutral will be in for a treat.

FC Groningen’s form coming into this match has been inconsistent, averaging 1.4 points per game from their last five fixtures. They’ve scored 7 and conceded 4 in their last five outings.

Excelsior arrive averaging 1.3 points per game from their last five. They’ve scored 9 and conceded 7 in their last five outings.

The historical record between FC Groningen and Excelsior will be on the minds of both managers as they plot their approach. Every encounter adds another chapter to the rivalry, and this one carries its own unique set of circumstances and pressures.

This is about as tight as it gets in our predictions. FC Groningen are given a 48% chance, Excelsior 21%, and the draw 29%. When the probabilities are this close, it’s a game that could go any way, and picking a winner with confidence is virtually impossible.

The expected goals model projects FC Groningen at 1.9 xG and Excelsior at 1.0 xG. The most likely scoreline according to our Poisson model is 1-1 (11% probability), followed by 2-1 (9%).