Fiorentina vs Lazio Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips — Serie A 13 Apr 2026

Fiorentina (16th) welcome Lazio (9th) in a Serie A fixture where both sides will be eager to climb the table. The hosts have 32 points on the board, while Lazio sit on 44 — neither can afford to let standards slip with the business end of the season approaching.

Don’t expect a goal-fest here. With a combined projected xG of 2.5, this has the makings of a cagey, tactical affair where defensive discipline could prove the difference.

Fiorentina’s form coming into this match has been solid, averaging 1.9 points per game from their last five fixtures. They’ve scored 6 and conceded 5 in their last five outings.

Lazio arrive in fine fettle, averaging 2.1 points per game from their last five. On the road they’ve been productive, scoring 6 in their last five while keeping things tight with just 4 conceded.

The historical record between Fiorentina and Lazio will be on the minds of both managers as they plot their approach. Every encounter adds another chapter to the rivalry, and this one carries its own unique set of circumstances and pressures.

This is about as tight as it gets in our predictions. Fiorentina are given a 30% chance, Lazio 31%, and the draw 38%. When the probabilities are this close, it’s a game that could go any way, and picking a winner with confidence is virtually impossible.

The expected goals model projects Fiorentina at 1.4 xG and Lazio at 1.1 xG. The most likely scoreline according to our Poisson model is 1-1 (13% probability), followed by 1-0 (10%).