Girona vs Villarreal Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips — La Liga 06 Apr 2026

Villarreal sit 3rd, inside the Champions League places, and will view this as an opportunity to consolidate their position. For Girona in 14th, this is a chance to make a statement against one of the league’s top sides — the kind of result that can shift momentum for the rest of the campaign.

The numbers point towards an entertaining game. Our model projects 1.2 expected goals for Girona and 1.6 for Villarreal, suggesting we could see goals at both ends. If both sides play to their offensive strengths, the neutral will be in for a treat.

Girona’s form coming into this match has been poor, averaging 1.1 points per game from their last five fixtures. They’ve scored 7 and conceded 6 in their last five outings.

Villarreal arrive in fine fettle, averaging 2.0 points per game from their last five. However, their defensive record is a concern — 8 conceded in five games, a vulnerability Girona will look to exploit.

The quality gap between these sides is notable. Villarreal’s Elo rating (1596) is 146 points higher than Girona’s (1449), suggesting a meaningful difference in overall squad strength and performance level.

The historical record between Girona and Villarreal will be on the minds of both managers as they plot their approach. Every encounter adds another chapter to the rivalry, and this one carries its own unique set of circumstances and pressures.

This is about as tight as it gets in our predictions. Girona are given a 20% chance, Villarreal 47%, and the draw 31%. When the probabilities are this close, it’s a game that could go any way, and picking a winner with confidence is virtually impossible.

The expected goals model projects Girona at 1.2 xG and Villarreal at 1.6 xG. The most likely scoreline according to our Poisson model is 1-1 (12% probability), followed by 1-2 (9%).