Heidenheim vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips — Bundesliga 21 Mar 2026

The stakes couldn’t be higher for Heidenheim, who sit 18th and in the relegation battle. Every point is precious at this stage of the season, and a defeat here could leave them staring at the very real prospect of the drop. Bayer 04 Leverkusen arrive knowing they can pile on the misery or hand a lifeline to their opponents.

The numbers point towards an entertaining game. Our model projects 1.0 expected goals for Heidenheim and 2.0 for Bayer 04 Leverkusen, suggesting we could see goals at both ends. If both sides play to their offensive strengths, the neutral will be in for a treat.

Heidenheim’s form coming into this match has been abysmal, averaging 0.1 points per game from their last five fixtures. They’ve scored 5 and conceded 11 in their last five outings.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen arrive averaging 1.3 points per game from their last five. They’ve scored 6 and conceded 6 in their last five outings.

The quality gap between these sides is notable. Bayer 04 Leverkusen’s Elo rating (1541) is 220 points higher than Heidenheim’s (1321), suggesting a meaningful difference in overall squad strength and performance level.

The historical record between Heidenheim and Bayer 04 Leverkusen will be on the minds of both managers as they plot their approach. Every encounter adds another chapter to the rivalry, and this one carries its own unique set of circumstances and pressures.

Our model gives Bayer 04 Leverkusen the edge at 63%, but this is far from a foregone conclusion. Heidenheim carry a 15% chance of springing a surprise, and with the draw at 20%, any of the three outcomes is a realistic possibility. The bookmakers tell a similar story — this is a match where the margins are fine.

The expected goals model projects Heidenheim at 1.0 xG and Bayer 04 Leverkusen at 2.0 xG. The most likely scoreline according to our Poisson model is 1-1 (10% probability), followed by 1-2 (9%).