Heracles Almelo vs Excelsior Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips — Eredivisie 20 Mar 2026

The stakes couldn’t be higher for Heracles Almelo, who sit 18th and in the relegation battle. Every point is precious at this stage of the season, and a defeat here could leave them staring at the very real prospect of the drop. Excelsior arrive knowing they can pile on the misery or hand a lifeline to their opponents.

Don’t expect a goal-fest here. With a combined projected xG of 2.7, this has the makings of a cagey, tactical affair where defensive discipline could prove the difference.

Heracles Almelo’s form coming into this match has been abysmal, averaging 0.2 points per game from their last five fixtures. They’ve scored 1 and conceded 12 in their last five outings.

Excelsior arrive hoping to rediscover their best form, averaging 0.0 points per game from their last five. However, their defensive record is a concern — 9 conceded in five games, a vulnerability Heracles Almelo will look to exploit.

The historical record between Heracles Almelo and Excelsior will be on the minds of both managers as they plot their approach. Every encounter adds another chapter to the rivalry, and this one carries its own unique set of circumstances and pressures.

This is about as tight as it gets in our predictions. Heracles Almelo are given a 23% chance, Excelsior 41%, and the draw 34%. When the probabilities are this close, it’s a game that could go any way, and picking a winner with confidence is virtually impossible.

The expected goals model projects Heracles Almelo at 1.2 xG and Excelsior at 1.5 xG. The most likely scoreline according to our Poisson model is 1-1 (12% probability), followed by 0-1 (9%).