TSG Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips — Bundesliga 18 Apr 2026

Borussia Dortmund sit 2nd, inside the Champions League places, and will view this as an opportunity to consolidate their position. For TSG Hoffenheim in 6th, this is a chance to make a statement against one of the league’s top sides — the kind of result that can shift momentum for the rest of the campaign.

The numbers point towards an entertaining game. Our model projects 1.2 expected goals for TSG Hoffenheim and 1.7 for Borussia Dortmund, suggesting we could see goals at both ends. If both sides play to their offensive strengths, the neutral will be in for a treat.

TSG Hoffenheim’s form coming into this match has been excellent, averaging 0.8 points per game from their last five fixtures. The goals have been flowing — 8 in their last five matches — though 12 conceded does suggest some vulnerabilities at the back.

Borussia Dortmund arrive in fine fettle, averaging 2.1 points per game from their last five. On the road they’ve been productive, scoring 9 in their last five while keeping things tight with just 4 conceded.

The quality gap between these sides is notable. Borussia Dortmund’s Elo rating (1640) is 133 points higher than TSG Hoffenheim’s (1507), suggesting a meaningful difference in overall squad strength and performance level.

The historical record between TSG Hoffenheim and Borussia Dortmund will be on the minds of both managers as they plot their approach. Every encounter adds another chapter to the rivalry, and this one carries its own unique set of circumstances and pressures.

Our model gives Borussia Dortmund the edge at 54%, but this is far from a foregone conclusion. TSG Hoffenheim carry a 19% chance of springing a surprise, and with the draw at 25%, any of the three outcomes is a realistic possibility. The bookmakers tell a similar story — this is a match where the margins are fine.

The expected goals model projects TSG Hoffenheim at 1.2 xG and Borussia Dortmund at 1.7 xG. The most likely scoreline according to our Poisson model is 1-1 (11% probability), followed by 1-2 (9%).