Inter vs Roma Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips — Serie A 05 Apr 2026

Inter sit 1st, top of the table, and will view this as an opportunity to consolidate their position. For Roma in 6th, this is a chance to make a statement against one of the league’s top sides — the kind of result that can shift momentum for the rest of the campaign.

The numbers point towards an entertaining game. Our model projects 2.4 expected goals for Inter and 1.0 for Roma, suggesting we could see goals at both ends. If both sides play to their offensive strengths, the neutral will be in for a treat.

Inter’s form coming into this match has been inconsistent, averaging 1.3 points per game from their last five fixtures. Defensively they’ve been resolute, conceding just 3 goals in five games, though 6 scored suggests they may need more cutting edge.

Roma arrive averaging 1.3 points per game from their last five. They’ve scored 9 and conceded 7 in their last five outings.

The quality gap between these sides is notable. Inter’s Elo rating (1647) is 105 points higher than Roma’s (1542), suggesting a meaningful difference in overall squad strength and performance level.

The historical record between Inter and Roma will be on the minds of both managers as they plot their approach. Every encounter adds another chapter to the rivalry, and this one carries its own unique set of circumstances and pressures.

Our model gives Inter the edge at 59%, but this is far from a foregone conclusion. Roma carry a 16% chance of springing a surprise, and with the draw at 24%, any of the three outcomes is a realistic possibility. The bookmakers tell a similar story — this is a match where the margins are fine.

The expected goals model projects Inter at 2.4 xG and Roma at 1.0 xG. The most likely scoreline according to our Poisson model is 2-0 (9% probability), followed by 2-1 (9%).