İstanbul Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips — Super Lig 24 Apr 2026

İstanbul Başakşehir (5th) welcome Kasımpaşa (13th) in a Super Lig fixture where both sides will be eager to climb the table. The hosts have 48 points on the board, while Kasımpaşa sit on 31 — neither can afford to let standards slip with the business end of the season approaching.

The numbers point towards an entertaining game. Our model projects 2.0 expected goals for İstanbul Başakşehir and 0.9 for Kasımpaşa, suggesting we could see goals at both ends. If both sides play to their offensive strengths, the neutral will be in for a treat.

İstanbul Başakşehir’s form coming into this match has been inconsistent, averaging 1.4 points per game from their last five fixtures. They’ve scored 4 and conceded 4 in their last five outings.

Kasımpaşa arrive in fine fettle, averaging 2.0 points per game from their last five. They’ve scored 8 and conceded 5 in their last five outings.

The quality gap between these sides is notable. İstanbul Başakşehir’s Elo rating (1537) is 101 points higher than Kasımpaşa’s (1436), suggesting a meaningful difference in overall squad strength and performance level.

The historical record between İstanbul Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa will be on the minds of both managers as they plot their approach. Every encounter adds another chapter to the rivalry, and this one carries its own unique set of circumstances and pressures.

Our model gives İstanbul Başakşehir the edge at 56%, but this is far from a foregone conclusion. Kasımpaşa carry a 12% chance of springing a surprise, and with the draw at 30%, any of the three outcomes is a realistic possibility. The bookmakers tell a similar story — this is a match where the margins are fine.

The expected goals model projects İstanbul Başakşehir at 2.0 xG and Kasımpaşa at 0.9 xG. The most likely scoreline according to our Poisson model is 2-0 (11% probability), followed by 1-0 (11%).