Le Havre vs Auxerre Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips — Ligue 1 05 Apr 2026

Le Havre (14th) welcome Auxerre (16th) in a Ligue 1 fixture where both sides will be eager to climb the table. The hosts have 27 points on the board, while Auxerre sit on 22 — neither can afford to let standards slip with the business end of the season approaching.

Don’t expect a goal-fest here. With a combined projected xG of 2.4, this has the makings of a cagey, tactical affair where defensive discipline could prove the difference.

Le Havre’s form coming into this match has been abysmal, averaging 0.2 points per game from their last five fixtures. They’ve scored 2 and conceded 8 in their last five outings.

Auxerre arrive averaging 1.2 points per game from their last five. They’ve scored 5 and conceded 6 in their last five outings.

The historical record between Le Havre and Auxerre will be on the minds of both managers as they plot their approach. Every encounter adds another chapter to the rivalry, and this one carries its own unique set of circumstances and pressures.

This is about as tight as it gets in our predictions. Le Havre are given a 35% chance, Auxerre 26%, and the draw 38%. When the probabilities are this close, it’s a game that could go any way, and picking a winner with confidence is virtually impossible.

The expected goals model projects Le Havre at 1.4 xG and Auxerre at 1.0 xG. The most likely scoreline according to our Poisson model is 1-1 (13% probability), followed by 1-0 (12%).