Le Havre vs Metz Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips — Ligue 1 26 Apr 2026

The stakes couldn’t be higher for Metz, who sit 18th and in the relegation battle. Every point is precious at this stage of the season, and a defeat here could leave them staring at the very real prospect of the drop. Le Havre arrive knowing they can pile on the misery or hand a lifeline to their opponents.

The numbers point towards an entertaining game. Our model projects 2.0 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.0 for Metz, suggesting we could see goals at both ends. If both sides play to their offensive strengths, the neutral will be in for a treat.

Le Havre’s form coming into this match has been blistering, averaging 0.8 points per game from their last five fixtures. They’ve scored 5 and conceded 6 in their last five outings.

Metz arrive hoping to rediscover their best form, averaging 0.3 points per game from their last five. However, their defensive record is a concern — 10 conceded in five games, a vulnerability Le Havre will look to exploit.

The quality gap between these sides is notable. Le Havre’s Elo rating (1424) is 111 points higher than Metz’s (1312), suggesting a meaningful difference in overall squad strength and performance level.

The historical record between Le Havre and Metz will be on the minds of both managers as they plot their approach. Every encounter adds another chapter to the rivalry, and this one carries its own unique set of circumstances and pressures.

This is about as tight as it gets in our predictions. Le Havre are given a 40% chance, Metz 22%, and the draw 36%. When the probabilities are this close, it’s a game that could go any way, and picking a winner with confidence is virtually impossible.

The expected goals model projects Le Havre at 2.0 xG and Metz at 1.0 xG. The most likely scoreline according to our Poisson model is 1-1 (10% probability), followed by 2-0 (10%).