Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs FC Augsburg Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips — Bundesliga 18 Apr 2026

Bayer 04 Leverkusen (5th) welcome FC Augsburg (10th) in a Bundesliga fixture where both sides will be eager to climb the table. The hosts have 52 points on the board, while FC Augsburg sit on 33 — neither can afford to let standards slip with the business end of the season approaching.

The numbers point towards an entertaining game. Our model projects 2.3 expected goals for Bayer 04 Leverkusen and 1.0 for FC Augsburg, suggesting we could see goals at both ends. If both sides play to their offensive strengths, the neutral will be in for a treat.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen’s form coming into this match has been excellent, averaging 2.1 points per game from their last five fixtures. The goals have been flowing — 14 in their last five matches — though 10 conceded does suggest some vulnerabilities at the back.

FC Augsburg arrive averaging 0.6 points per game from their last five. However, their defensive record is a concern — 12 conceded in five games, a vulnerability Bayer 04 Leverkusen will look to exploit.

The quality gap between these sides is notable. Bayer 04 Leverkusen’s Elo rating (1553) is 123 points higher than FC Augsburg’s (1430), suggesting a meaningful difference in overall squad strength and performance level.

The historical record between Bayer 04 Leverkusen and FC Augsburg will be on the minds of both managers as they plot their approach. Every encounter adds another chapter to the rivalry, and this one carries its own unique set of circumstances and pressures.

Our model gives Bayer 04 Leverkusen the edge at 57%, but this is far from a foregone conclusion. FC Augsburg carry a 16% chance of springing a surprise, and with the draw at 25%, any of the three outcomes is a realistic possibility. The bookmakers tell a similar story — this is a match where the margins are fine.

The expected goals model projects Bayer 04 Leverkusen at 2.3 xG and FC Augsburg at 1.0 xG. The most likely scoreline according to our Poisson model is 2-1 (9% probability), followed by 2-0 (9%).