Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips — Bundesliga 02 May 2026

RB Leipzig sit 3rd, inside the Champions League places, and will view this as an opportunity to consolidate their position. For Bayer 04 Leverkusen in 6th, this is a chance to make a statement against one of the league’s top sides — the kind of result that can shift momentum for the rest of the campaign.

The numbers point towards an entertaining game. Our model projects 1.7 expected goals for Bayer 04 Leverkusen and 1.8 for RB Leipzig, suggesting we could see goals at both ends. If both sides play to their offensive strengths, the neutral will be in for a treat.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen’s form coming into this match has been excellent, averaging 2.0 points per game from their last five fixtures. The goals have been flowing — 13 in their last five matches — though 9 conceded does suggest some vulnerabilities at the back.

RB Leipzig arrive in fine fettle, averaging 3.0 points per game from their last five. On the road they’ve been productive, scoring 14 in their last five while keeping things tight with just 3 conceded.

The historical record between Bayer 04 Leverkusen and RB Leipzig will be on the minds of both managers as they plot their approach. Every encounter adds another chapter to the rivalry, and this one carries its own unique set of circumstances and pressures.

This is about as tight as it gets in our predictions. Bayer 04 Leverkusen are given a 28% chance, RB Leipzig 31%, and the draw 40%. When the probabilities are this close, it’s a game that could go any way, and picking a winner with confidence is virtually impossible.

The expected goals model projects Bayer 04 Leverkusen at 1.7 xG and RB Leipzig at 1.8 xG. The most likely scoreline according to our Poisson model is 1-1 (9% probability), followed by 1-2 (8%).