Liverpool vs Chelsea Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips — Premier League 09 May 2026

Liverpool sit 4th, inside the Champions League places, and will view this as an opportunity to consolidate their position. For Chelsea in 9th, this is a chance to make a statement against one of the league’s top sides — the kind of result that can shift momentum for the rest of the campaign.

Don’t expect a goal-fest here. With a combined projected xG of 2.8, this has the makings of a cagey, tactical affair where defensive discipline could prove the difference.

Liverpool’s form coming into this match has been solid, averaging 1.8 points per game from their last five fixtures. The goals have been flowing — 9 in their last five matches — though 9 conceded does suggest some vulnerabilities at the back.

Chelsea arrive in fine fettle, averaging 0.8 points per game from their last five. However, their defensive record is a concern — 10 conceded in five games, a vulnerability Liverpool will look to exploit.

The historical record between Liverpool and Chelsea will be on the minds of both managers as they plot their approach. Every encounter adds another chapter to the rivalry, and this one carries its own unique set of circumstances and pressures.

This is about as tight as it gets in our predictions. Liverpool are given a 39% chance, Chelsea 30%, and the draw 30%. When the probabilities are this close, it’s a game that could go any way, and picking a winner with confidence is virtually impossible.

The expected goals model projects Liverpool at 1.7 xG and Chelsea at 1.1 xG. The most likely scoreline according to our Poisson model is 1-1 (11% probability), followed by 1-0 (10%).