Olympique Lyonnais vs Auxerre Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips — Ligue 1 25 Apr 2026

Olympique Lyonnais sit 4th, inside the Champions League places, and will view this as an opportunity to consolidate their position. For Auxerre in 16th, this is a chance to make a statement against one of the league’s top sides — the kind of result that can shift momentum for the rest of the campaign.

Don’t expect a goal-fest here. With a combined projected xG of 2.7, this has the makings of a cagey, tactical affair where defensive discipline could prove the difference.

Olympique Lyonnais’s form coming into this match has been solid, averaging 1.9 points per game from their last five fixtures. Defensively they’ve been resolute, conceding just 3 goals in five games, though 5 scored suggests they may need more cutting edge.

Auxerre arrive hoping to rediscover their best form, averaging 1.2 points per game from their last five. On the road they’ve been productive, scoring 6 in their last five while keeping things tight with just 4 conceded.

The quality gap between these sides is notable. Olympique Lyonnais’s Elo rating (1540) is 136 points higher than Auxerre’s (1404), suggesting a meaningful difference in overall squad strength and performance level.

The historical record between Olympique Lyonnais and Auxerre will be on the minds of both managers as they plot their approach. Every encounter adds another chapter to the rivalry, and this one carries its own unique set of circumstances and pressures.

This is about as tight as it gets in our predictions. Olympique Lyonnais are given a 47% chance, Auxerre 18%, and the draw 34%. When the probabilities are this close, it’s a game that could go any way, and picking a winner with confidence is virtually impossible.

The expected goals model projects Olympique Lyonnais at 1.8 xG and Auxerre at 0.9 xG. The most likely scoreline according to our Poisson model is 1-1 (11% probability), followed by 1-0 (11%).