PREMIER LEAGUE 2025/26
Manchester United

Manchester United

Home
VS
Sun 17 May
11:30 GMT
Nottingham Forest

Nottingham Forest

Away
93% Home5% Draw1% Away
Full Time
3 - 2
LOST
CS
CalibrSports Research
Updated 17 May 2026 · 8 min read

Manchester United vs Nottingham Forest Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips — Premier League 17 May 2026

Manchester United host Nottingham Forest with a significant Elo advantage, but the visitors' recent form and goal-scoring record pose a threat

93%
Manchester United
Draw 5%
Nottingham Forest

What's at Stake

Manchester United are chasing a top-three finish in the Premier League, while Nottingham Forest are fighting to avoid relegation. A win for United would boost their title aspirations, but Forest need points to climb the table. The gap between them is significant, with United in third and Forest in 16th place.

Form & Team News

Manchester United have been solid, with a form rating of 2.1 points per game over their last five matches. They've scored 7 goals and conceded 5 in that period. Nottingham Forest, on the other hand, have been impressive, scoring 14 goals and conceding just 4 in their last five games, earning them a form rating of 2.2 points per game.

Key Numbers
1.9
Manchester United xG
vs
Expected Goals
0.9
Nottingham Forest xG

The Head-to-Head Factor

The head-to-head record between these two teams is evenly matched, with an average of 2 goals scored by each side. This suggests a potentially open and attacking game. Both sides have players in form, with 70% of their players performing well.

Our Prediction

Our prediction is that Manchester United will win this match. They have the home advantage and a higher Elo rating, which gives them an edge. However, Nottingham Forest's recent goal-scoring form and solid defensive record mean they won't go down without a fight.

AI Prediction
Home Win
Most likely: 1-1
93%
confidence

Key Stats

  • Manchester United have a 109-point Elo advantage
  • Nottingham Forest have scored 14 goals in their last 5 games
  • Manchester United have a home win probability of 58.9%
  • The expected goals are 1.96 for Manchester United and 0.94 for Nottingham Forest
  • Nottingham Forest have a shot efficiency of 4.1 shots per goal
  • The head-to-head goals average is 2.0 for both teams
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