Olympique Marseille vs Metz Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips — Ligue 1 10 Apr 2026

Olympique Marseille sit 4th, inside the Champions League places, and will view this as an opportunity to consolidate their position. For Metz in 18th, this is a chance to make a statement against one of the league’s top sides — the kind of result that can shift momentum for the rest of the campaign.

The numbers point towards an entertaining game. Our model projects 2.2 expected goals for Olympique Marseille and 0.9 for Metz, suggesting we could see goals at both ends. If both sides play to their offensive strengths, the neutral will be in for a treat.

Olympique Marseille’s form coming into this match has been inconsistent, averaging 1.4 points per game from their last five fixtures. They’ve scored 7 and conceded 6 in their last five outings.

Metz arrive averaging 0.6 points per game from their last five. However, their defensive record is a concern — 8 conceded in five games, a vulnerability Olympique Marseille will look to exploit.

The quality gap between these sides is notable. Olympique Marseille’s Elo rating (1541) is 212 points higher than Metz’s (1328), suggesting a meaningful difference in overall squad strength and performance level.

The historical record between Olympique Marseille and Metz will be on the minds of both managers as they plot their approach. Every encounter adds another chapter to the rivalry, and this one carries its own unique set of circumstances and pressures.

Our model gives Olympique Marseille the edge at 63%, but this is far from a foregone conclusion. Metz carry a 14% chance of springing a surprise, and with the draw at 22%, any of the three outcomes is a realistic possibility. The bookmakers tell a similar story — this is a match where the margins are fine.

The expected goals model projects Olympique Marseille at 2.2 xG and Metz at 0.9 xG. The most likely scoreline according to our Poisson model is 2-0 (11% probability), followed by 2-1 (9%).