Olympique Marseille vs Rennes Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips — Ligue 1 17 May 2026

Olympique Marseille (6th) welcome Rennes (5th) in a Ligue 1 fixture where both sides will be eager to climb the table. The hosts have 56 points on the board, while Rennes sit on 59 — neither can afford to let standards slip with the business end of the season approaching.

The numbers point towards an entertaining game. Our model projects 1.6 expected goals for Olympique Marseille and 1.4 for Rennes, suggesting we could see goals at both ends. If both sides play to their offensive strengths, the neutral will be in for a treat.

Olympique Marseille’s form coming into this match has been inconsistent, averaging 1.4 points per game from their last five fixtures. They’ve scored 5 and conceded 7 in their last five outings.

Rennes arrive in fine fettle, averaging 2.2 points per game from their last five. They’ve scored 11 and conceded 7 in their last five outings.

The historical record between Olympique Marseille and Rennes will be on the minds of both managers as they plot their approach. Every encounter adds another chapter to the rivalry, and this one carries its own unique set of circumstances and pressures.

This is about as tight as it gets in our predictions. Olympique Marseille are given a 41% chance, Rennes 29%, and the draw 29%. When the probabilities are this close, it’s a game that could go any way, and picking a winner with confidence is virtually impossible.

The expected goals model projects Olympique Marseille at 1.6 xG and Rennes at 1.4 xG. The most likely scoreline according to our Poisson model is 1-1 (11% probability), followed by 2-1 (8%).