FIFA WORLD CUP 2026
Mexico

Mexico

Home
VS
Fri 19 Jun
01:00 GMT
Korea Republic

Korea Republic

Away
79% Home16% Draw5% Away
Full Time
1 - 0
Mexico win
CS
CalibrSports Research
Updated 19 Jun 2026 · 8 min read

Mexico vs Korea Republic Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips — FIFA World Cup 2026 19 Jun 2026

Host nation Mexico looks to build on opening win against a strong Korea Republic side in Group A

79%
16%
Mexico
Draw 16%
Korea Republic

What's at Stake

With two matches remaining in the group stage, the margin for error is small. Mexico and Korea Republic will be aware that a draw could leave them vulnerable to being overtaken by the other teams in the group. As a result, we can expect both teams to be cautious but also ambitious in their approach.

Form & Team News

The news that Korea Republic's manager, Hong Myung-bo, has been experimenting with a back three formation could be significant. If he chooses to deploy this formation against Mexico, it could lead to an interesting tactical battle. Mexico's ability to adapt to this formation will be crucial to their chances of success.

Key Numbers
1.0
Mexico xG
vs
Expected Goals
1.0
Korea Republic xG

The Head-to-Head Factor

The two teams have not met recently, which makes it difficult to draw conclusions from their past encounters. However, Korea Republic's recent form and higher Elo rating suggest they may have a slight advantage. Mexico will need to be at their best to overcome this.

Key Stats

  • Mexico has a 43.2% chance of winning, according to the numbers.
  • Korea Republic has a shot efficiency of 8.6, which is higher than Mexico's 15.2.
  • Mexico's average possession is 58%, which is lower than Korea Republic's 72%.
  • The expected goals (xG) suggest that this match will be a close and low-scoring encounter, with Mexico's xG of 1.02 only slightly higher than Korea Republic's 0.95.
  • Mexico's recent form has seen them score 5 goals and concede 3 in their last 5 matches.
  • Korea Republic has scored 9 goals and conceded 3 in their last 5 matches, making them a formidable opponent.
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