FIFA WORLD CUP 2026
Mexico

Mexico

Home
VS
Thu 11 Jun
19:00 GMT
South Africa

South Africa

Away
51% Home39% Draw10% Away
Full Time
2 - 0
Mexico win
CS
CalibrSports Research
Updated 11 Jun 2026 · 8 min read

Mexico vs South Africa Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips — FIFA World Cup 2026 11 Jun 2026

Mexico hosts South Africa in a crucial World Cup group stage match with home advantage on their side

51%
39%
10%
Mexico
Draw 39%
South Africa

What's at Stake

The Group A standings are still open, with no matches settled, which means both Mexico and South Africa have a clean slate. There's no must-win or dead-rubber scenario at play, making this match a genuine test of each team's abilities and strategies.

Form & Team News

South Africa's recent form has been impressive, with 2.3 weighted points per game over their last five matches. This suggests they are in a good run of form, which could pose a significant challenge to Mexico.

Key Numbers
1.4
Mexico xG
vs
Expected Goals
0.7
South Africa xG

The Head-to-Head Factor

The lack of a extensive head-to-head record means that both teams will be looking to establish dominance from the outset. Mexico's home advantage could play a crucial role in shaping the match's dynamics.

Key Stats

  • Mexico has a 160-point Elo rating advantage over South Africa.
  • Mexico's xG is 1.45, compared to South Africa's 0.68.
  • South Africa has scored 9 goals in their last 5 matches, conceding just 1.
  • Mexico averages 58% possession in their recent games.
  • South Africa's shot efficiency is 6.7 shots per goal, compared to Mexico's 15.2.
  • The match is expected to be closely contested, with Mexico's home advantage being a decisive factor.
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