Millwall vs Hull City Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips — Championship 11 May 2026

Millwall sit 3rd, inside the Champions League places, and will view this as an opportunity to consolidate their position. For Hull City in 6th, this is a chance to make a statement against one of the league’s top sides — the kind of result that can shift momentum for the rest of the campaign.

The numbers point towards an entertaining game. Our model projects 2.2 expected goals for Millwall and 0.9 for Hull City, suggesting we could see goals at both ends. If both sides play to their offensive strengths, the neutral will be in for a treat.

Millwall’s form coming into this match has been solid, averaging 2.0 points per game from their last five fixtures. They’ve been particularly impressive at both ends, scoring 8 goals and conceding just 2 in their last five.

Hull City arrive averaging 1.3 points per game from their last five. They’ve scored 6 and conceded 6 in their last five outings.

The quality gap between these sides is notable. Millwall’s Elo rating (1552) is 80 points higher than Hull City’s (1471), suggesting a meaningful difference in overall squad strength and performance level.

The historical record between Millwall and Hull City will be on the minds of both managers as they plot their approach. Every encounter adds another chapter to the rivalry, and this one carries its own unique set of circumstances and pressures.

Our model gives Millwall the edge at 55%, but this is far from a foregone conclusion. Hull City carry a 19% chance of springing a surprise, and with the draw at 25%, any of the three outcomes is a realistic possibility. The bookmakers tell a similar story — this is a match where the margins are fine.

The expected goals model projects Millwall at 2.2 xG and Hull City at 0.9 xG. The most likely scoreline according to our Poisson model is 2-0 (10% probability), followed by 2-1 (9%).