Newcastle United vs AFC Bournemouth Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips — Premier League 18 Apr 2026

Newcastle United (14th) welcome AFC Bournemouth (11th) in a Premier League fixture where both sides will be eager to climb the table. The hosts have 42 points on the board, while AFC Bournemouth sit on 45 — neither can afford to let standards slip with the business end of the season approaching.

Don’t expect a goal-fest here. With a combined projected xG of 2.8, this has the makings of a cagey, tactical affair where defensive discipline could prove the difference.

Newcastle United’s form coming into this match has been poor, averaging 1.1 points per game from their last five fixtures. They’ve scored 7 and conceded 8 in their last five outings.

AFC Bournemouth arrive averaging 1.6 points per game from their last five. They’ve scored 5 and conceded 4 in their last five outings.

The historical record between Newcastle United and AFC Bournemouth will be on the minds of both managers as they plot their approach. Every encounter adds another chapter to the rivalry, and this one carries its own unique set of circumstances and pressures.

This is about as tight as it gets in our predictions. Newcastle United are given a 22% chance, AFC Bournemouth 41%, and the draw 36%. When the probabilities are this close, it’s a game that could go any way, and picking a winner with confidence is virtually impossible.

The expected goals model projects Newcastle United at 1.4 xG and AFC Bournemouth at 1.4 xG. The most likely scoreline according to our Poisson model is 1-1 (12% probability), followed by 1-2 (8%).