Newcastle United vs Sunderland Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips — Premier League 22 Mar 2026

Newcastle United (9th) welcome Sunderland (13th) in a Premier League fixture where both sides will be eager to climb the table. The hosts have 42 points on the board, while Sunderland sit on 40 — neither can afford to let standards slip with the business end of the season approaching.

Don’t expect a goal-fest here. With a combined projected xG of 2.7, this has the makings of a cagey, tactical affair where defensive discipline could prove the difference.

Newcastle United’s form coming into this match has been solid, averaging 1.9 points per game from their last five fixtures. The goals have been flowing — 8 in their last five matches — though 7 conceded does suggest some vulnerabilities at the back.

Sunderland arrive in fine fettle, averaging 0.9 points per game from their last five. They’ve scored 3 and conceded 6 in their last five outings.

The historical record between Newcastle United and Sunderland will be on the minds of both managers as they plot their approach. Every encounter adds another chapter to the rivalry, and this one carries its own unique set of circumstances and pressures.

This is about as tight as it gets in our predictions. Newcastle United are given a 48% chance, Sunderland 22%, and the draw 28%. When the probabilities are this close, it’s a game that could go any way, and picking a winner with confidence is virtually impossible.

The expected goals model projects Newcastle United at 1.8 xG and Sunderland at 0.9 xG. The most likely scoreline according to our Poisson model is 1-1 (11% probability), followed by 1-0 (11%).