Nottingham Forest vs Burnley Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips — Premier League 19 Apr 2026

The stakes couldn’t be higher for Burnley, who sit 19th and in the relegation battle. Every point is precious at this stage of the season, and a defeat here could leave them staring at the very real prospect of the drop. Nottingham Forest arrive knowing they can pile on the misery or hand a lifeline to their opponents.

Don’t expect a goal-fest here. With a combined projected xG of 2.6, this has the makings of a cagey, tactical affair where defensive discipline could prove the difference.

Nottingham Forest’s form coming into this match has been inconsistent, averaging 1.4 points per game from their last five fixtures. They’ve scored 7 and conceded 5 in their last five outings.

Burnley arrive hoping to rediscover their best form, averaging 0.2 points per game from their last five. However, their defensive record is a concern — 11 conceded in five games, a vulnerability Nottingham Forest will look to exploit.

The quality gap between these sides is notable. Nottingham Forest’s Elo rating (1426) is 83 points higher than Burnley’s (1343), suggesting a meaningful difference in overall squad strength and performance level.

The historical record between Nottingham Forest and Burnley will be on the minds of both managers as they plot their approach. Every encounter adds another chapter to the rivalry, and this one carries its own unique set of circumstances and pressures.

This is about as tight as it gets in our predictions. Nottingham Forest are given a 43% chance, Burnley 20%, and the draw 36%. When the probabilities are this close, it’s a game that could go any way, and picking a winner with confidence is virtually impossible.

The expected goals model projects Nottingham Forest at 1.6 xG and Burnley at 0.9 xG. The most likely scoreline according to our Poisson model is 1-1 (12% probability), followed by 1-0 (11%).