Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle United Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips — Premier League 10 May 2026

Nottingham Forest (16th) welcome Newcastle United (13th) in a Premier League fixture where both sides will be eager to climb the table. The hosts have 42 points on the board, while Newcastle United sit on 45 — neither can afford to let standards slip with the business end of the season approaching.

Don’t expect a goal-fest here. With a combined projected xG of 2.6, this has the makings of a cagey, tactical affair where defensive discipline could prove the difference.

Nottingham Forest’s form coming into this match has been blistering, averaging 2.7 points per game from their last five fixtures. They’ve been particularly impressive at both ends, scoring 16 goals and conceding just 3 in their last five.

Newcastle United arrive in fine fettle, averaging 0.9 points per game from their last five. However, their defensive record is a concern — 8 conceded in five games, a vulnerability Nottingham Forest will look to exploit.

The historical record between Nottingham Forest and Newcastle United will be on the minds of both managers as they plot their approach. Every encounter adds another chapter to the rivalry, and this one carries its own unique set of circumstances and pressures.

This is about as tight as it gets in our predictions. Nottingham Forest are given a 32% chance, Newcastle United 32%, and the draw 35%. When the probabilities are this close, it’s a game that could go any way, and picking a winner with confidence is virtually impossible.

The expected goals model projects Nottingham Forest at 1.5 xG and Newcastle United at 1.1 xG. The most likely scoreline according to our Poisson model is 1-1 (12% probability), followed by 1-0 (10%).