Real Madrid vs Deportivo Alavés Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips — La Liga 21 Apr 2026

Real Madrid sit 2nd, inside the Champions League places, and will view this as an opportunity to consolidate their position. For Deportivo Alavés in 17th, this is a chance to make a statement against one of the league’s top sides — the kind of result that can shift momentum for the rest of the campaign.

The numbers point towards an entertaining game. Our model projects 2.6 expected goals for Real Madrid and 0.8 for Deportivo Alavés, suggesting we could see goals at both ends. If both sides play to their offensive strengths, the neutral will be in for a treat.

Real Madrid’s form coming into this match has been solid, averaging 1.7 points per game from their last five fixtures. The goals have been flowing — 11 in their last five matches — though 7 conceded does suggest some vulnerabilities at the back.

Deportivo Alavés arrive averaging 1.3 points per game from their last five. However, their defensive record is a concern — 12 conceded in five games, a vulnerability Real Madrid will look to exploit.

The quality gap between these sides is notable. Real Madrid’s Elo rating (1618) is 185 points higher than Deportivo Alavés’s (1432), suggesting a meaningful difference in overall squad strength and performance level.

The historical record between Real Madrid and Deportivo Alavés will be on the minds of both managers as they plot their approach. Every encounter adds another chapter to the rivalry, and this one carries its own unique set of circumstances and pressures.

Our AI model makes Real Madrid clear favourites here, giving them a 68% chance of winning. That leaves Deportivo Alavés with just a 11% probability of pulling off a result, while the draw sits at 20%. This is one of the more lopsided predictions of the matchday — the data sees a clear gap between these two sides.

The expected goals model projects Real Madrid at 2.6 xG and Deportivo Alavés at 0.8 xG. The most likely scoreline according to our Poisson model is 2-0 (11% probability), followed by 3-0 (9%).