Roma vs Atalanta Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips — Serie A 18 Apr 2026

Roma (6th) welcome Atalanta (7th) in a Serie A fixture where both sides will be eager to climb the table. The hosts have 57 points on the board, while Atalanta sit on 53 — neither can afford to let standards slip with the business end of the season approaching.

The numbers point towards an entertaining game. Our model projects 1.5 expected goals for Roma and 1.4 for Atalanta, suggesting we could see goals at both ends. If both sides play to their offensive strengths, the neutral will be in for a treat.

Roma’s form coming into this match has been inconsistent, averaging 1.5 points per game from their last five fixtures. The goals have been flowing — 8 in their last five matches — though 9 conceded does suggest some vulnerabilities at the back.

Atalanta arrive averaging 1.6 points per game from their last five. On the road they’ve been productive, scoring 7 in their last five while keeping things tight with just 4 conceded.

The historical record between Roma and Atalanta will be on the minds of both managers as they plot their approach. Every encounter adds another chapter to the rivalry, and this one carries its own unique set of circumstances and pressures.

This is about as tight as it gets in our predictions. Roma are given a 32% chance, Atalanta 35%, and the draw 31%. When the probabilities are this close, it’s a game that could go any way, and picking a winner with confidence is virtually impossible.

The expected goals model projects Roma at 1.5 xG and Atalanta at 1.4 xG. The most likely scoreline according to our Poisson model is 1-1 (12% probability), followed by 2-1 (8%).