SERIE A 2025/26
Roma

Roma

Home
VS
Mon 04 May
18:45 GMT
Fiorentina

Fiorentina

Away
47% Home33% Draw20% Away
CS
CalibrSports Research
Updated 04 May 2026 · 8 min read

Roma vs Fiorentina Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips — Serie A 04 May 2026

Gian Piero Gasperini's side looks to continue their push for a European spot against struggling Fiorentina

47%
33%
20%
Roma
Draw 33%
Fiorentina

What's at Stake

The implications of this match go beyond just the two teams involved. A Roma win could also impact the teams around them in the table, potentially pushing them closer to a European spot. Meanwhile, a Fiorentina win could have a significant impact on the relegation battle, potentially dragging other teams into the mix.

Form & Team News

Roma's mid-block compresses central lanes before springing forward, which has allowed them to control the tempo of the game. With Paulo Dybala ruled out for the season and centre-back Victor Nelsson still unavailable, the soul of Roma's build-up now flows through Lorenzo Pellegrini and Matías Soulé.

Key Numbers
1.8
Roma xG
vs
Expected Goals
0.9
Fiorentina xG

The Head-to-Head Factor

In their last 5 meetings, Roma has come out on top 3 times, with Fiorentina winning just once. The most recent meeting between the two teams ended in a 2-1 win for Roma, with Matías Soulé scoring the winner.

Our Prediction

Fiorentina, on the other hand, will need to be more clinical in front of goal if they want to take anything from this match. They've struggled to find the back of the net in recent weeks, and against a solid Roma defense, they'll need to be more efficient if they want to get a result.

AI Prediction
Home Win
Most likely: 1-1
47%
confidence

Key Stats

  • Roma has a 67-point Elo advantage over Fiorentina
  • Roma has scored 9 goals in their last 5 matches, while Fiorentina has scored just 4
  • Roma's shot efficiency is 6.3 shots per goal, compared to Fiorentina's 14
  • Roma has averaged 2.0 goals per game against Fiorentina in their head-to-head record
  • Fiorentina has averaged just 1.0 goal per game against Roma
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