Samsunspor vs Beşiktaş Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips — Super Lig 19 Apr 2026

Beşiktaş sit 4th, inside the Champions League places, and will view this as an opportunity to consolidate their position. For Samsunspor in 7th, this is a chance to make a statement against one of the league’s top sides — the kind of result that can shift momentum for the rest of the campaign.

The numbers point towards an entertaining game. Our model projects 1.4 expected goals for Samsunspor and 1.6 for Beşiktaş, suggesting we could see goals at both ends. If both sides play to their offensive strengths, the neutral will be in for a treat.

Samsunspor’s form coming into this match has been inconsistent, averaging 1.5 points per game from their last five fixtures. The goals have been flowing — 9 in their last five matches — though 11 conceded does suggest some vulnerabilities at the back.

Beşiktaş arrive in fine fettle, averaging 1.9 points per game from their last five. They’ve scored 8 and conceded 5 in their last five outings.

The quality gap between these sides is notable. Beşiktaş’s Elo rating (1593) is 119 points higher than Samsunspor’s (1474), suggesting a meaningful difference in overall squad strength and performance level.

The historical record between Samsunspor and Beşiktaş will be on the minds of both managers as they plot their approach. Every encounter adds another chapter to the rivalry, and this one carries its own unique set of circumstances and pressures.

This is about as tight as it gets in our predictions. Samsunspor are given a 22% chance, Beşiktaş 38%, and the draw 38%. When the probabilities are this close, it’s a game that could go any way, and picking a winner with confidence is virtually impossible.

The expected goals model projects Samsunspor at 1.4 xG and Beşiktaş at 1.6 xG. The most likely scoreline according to our Poisson model is 1-1 (11% probability), followed by 1-2 (8%).