Sassuolo vs Como Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips — Serie A 17 Apr 2026

Sassuolo (11th) welcome Como (5th) in a Serie A fixture where both sides will be eager to climb the table. The hosts have 42 points on the board, while Como sit on 58 — neither can afford to let standards slip with the business end of the season approaching.

The numbers point towards an entertaining game. Our model projects 1.0 expected goals for Sassuolo and 2.1 for Como, suggesting we could see goals at both ends. If both sides play to their offensive strengths, the neutral will be in for a treat.

Sassuolo’s form coming into this match has been blistering, averaging 0.9 points per game from their last five fixtures. They’ve scored 5 and conceded 7 in their last five outings.

Como arrive averaging 1.6 points per game from their last five. They’ve scored 12 and conceded 6 in their last five outings.

The quality gap between these sides is notable. Como’s Elo rating (1577) is 117 points higher than Sassuolo’s (1459), suggesting a meaningful difference in overall squad strength and performance level.

The historical record between Sassuolo and Como will be on the minds of both managers as they plot their approach. Every encounter adds another chapter to the rivalry, and this one carries its own unique set of circumstances and pressures.

Our AI model makes Como clear favourites here, giving them a 68% chance of winning. That leaves Sassuolo with just a 13% probability of pulling off a result, while the draw sits at 18%. This is one of the more lopsided predictions of the matchday — the data sees a clear gap between these two sides.

The expected goals model projects Sassuolo at 1.0 xG and Como at 2.1 xG. The most likely scoreline according to our Poisson model is 1-1 (10% probability), followed by 1-2 (9%).